According to figures issued by the International Labour Organization (ILO), two million more people are expected to lose their jobs globally by 2024, painting a dire image of the labor market.
In contrast to the minor improvement observed the previous year, the World Employment and Social Outlook Trends: 2024 (WESO Trends) study projects that the global unemployment rate will increase from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024.
The data also shows that, among nations with different income levels and worker demographics, there have been significant variations in the pace of post-pandemic labor market recovery.
Both the unemployment rate and the jobs gap rate—which measures the number of jobless individuals looking for work—have dropped from pre-pandemic levels, but the research cautions that these numbers mask the underlying problems in the labor market.
One of these negative effects is that the majority of G20 countries now have fewer revenues that can be spent, which has decreased the standard of living for consumers and workers. The analysis indicates that there is little likelihood that the inflationary pressures brought on by the epidemic will lessen quickly, which presents a challenge to aggregate demand and a longer-term economic recovery.
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Another problem is the continued existence of working poverty, especially in low-income countries. According to the analysis, in terms of purchasing power parity, there will be an increase of approximately 1 million workers living in extreme poverty (earning less than $2.15 per person per day) and 8.4 million workers living in moderate poverty (earning less than $3.65 per person per day) in 2023.
The report of ILO also highlights how the epidemic has exacerbated wealth inequality within and between countries. The paper states that in 2023, the employment gap between high-income and low-income countries will be 8.2% and 20.5%, respectively. In contrast, the unemployment rate in 2023 was 5.7% in low-income countries and 4.5% in high-income ones.
According to the study, rates of informal employment, which are typically associated with lower wages, fewer social protections, and fewer labor rights, should remain stable and account for approximately 58% of the global workforce by 2024.
This study also looks at trends in worker productivity, which is one of the primary drivers of social advancement and economic growth. After a brief boost following the epidemic, it can be concluded that worker productivity has returned to the low level seen ten years earlier.
“When looking below the headline employment market numbers, the investigation’s conclusions should cause grave alarm. According to Gilbert F. Houngbo, director-general of the ILO, “it is beginning to look as though these imbalances are not just part of pandemic recovery but structural.”
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