Due to this week’s worldwide petrol prices, the Pakistani rupee’s enormous rise, and Russia’s pipeline diesel export ban relaxation, per-liter pricing for both grades is likely to fall below 300 on October 15.
If global prices and the Pakistani rupee stay the same for the next ten days, Arif Habib Limited expects local petrol and diesel prices to drop by Rs. 41/liter and Rs. 19/liter in the next fortnightly pricing, which begins on October 16, 2023.
Arif Habib Limited noted in a Friday market assessment that growing supplies, inflationary pressure, a stronger US dollar, and demand concerns had caused global oil prices to plummet this week. WTI, Brent, and Arab light dropped 9–11% from the previous fortnightly average.
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Petrol Comparison
International gasoline (MS) plummeted 15% to $84.3/bbl, while HSD lost 10% to $110.6/bbl from $122.3/bbl.
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As for the PKR, it has increased by 2.7% to 283.87/$ from the previous fortnightly average of 291.65/$.
The rupee has gained roughly 3% versus the US dollar since the latest gasoline price review, despite international MS and HSD prices falling $12 and $9 per barrel, respectively, in the last three days. For fuel prices to drop, this pattern must continue until the next fortnightly petroleum rate review on October 15.
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Recall that the most recent fortnightly pricing of MS and HSD included an exchange rate adjustment of Rs. 11.9/liter and Rs. -2.8/liter, respectively. The MS and HSD are anticipated to decrease by Rs. 28.6/liter and Rs. 19.3 liters at the next fortnightly price, even with the same currency adjustment for MS and zero for HSD.
Considering the foregoing, AHL expects October’s CPI to fall 92 basis points to 27.5 percent.
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