Week 8 is the penultimate NFL game before Tuesday’s trade deadline (4 p.m. ET), so teams that were undecided must decide. No more time to hope disappointed players will break through, no more wins or losses to provide clarity or direction, and no more games to reveal strengths and shortcomings.
Some teams may have given up on Sunday. The difference between winning and losing this weekend may influence those who wanted to keep their players to make deals. Other teams may not know what to do. Perhaps an unexpected win or loss on Sunday changed their mind.
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Let’s talk about the teams in the centre, those that don’t know whether to add players at the trade deadline or subtract talent to gain draught capital. I may think they should go one way, but it doesn’t always match what they’ll do on Tuesday. Some should trade away skill and go the other way; others should add or subtract veterans in the correct move.
Let’s start with the rest of the league and the teams that should be heading one way or the other. These teams may make veteran deals during the next two days, but if they do, it should be to add players to their 53-man roster.
Teams that should be added by the deadline:
49ers, Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Jaguars, Lions, Ravens, and Seahawks
These choices seem uncontroversial. Any of the 11 top NFL teams missing the playoffs would be surprising. Their record is 60-24. The Eagles traded for safety Kevin Byard, while the Dolphins gambled on wideout Chase Claypool, who had his first reception with the Fins in Sunday’s win over the Patriots.
Some may be more aggressive. Deal-making Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is possibly the league’s most active. The Bengals and Duke Tobin are more likely to stay. If these teams trade, financial capital will likely go out for veteran talent rather than in. Two teams from this list should be active by Tuesday, one from each league. The Bills defence is in jeopardy after linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White went down for the season with injuries, while the offence had been struggling before a good performance against the Bucs on Thursday. Buffalo should construct a stronger offence to win more shootouts instead of replacing Milano or White.
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The Bills were better with one tight end than two, but the summer decision to adopt more 12 personnel as the Chiefs did last season wasn’t working. Without Dawson Knox, the offence was speedier and more efficient. Should they spread their defences to win? If so, they may rationalise signing a second video receiver like Jerry Jeudy to beat man coverage across from Stefon Diggs. However, adding a power back who can overpower other teams in light boxes is great. If the Titans trade Derrick Henry, Buffalo should call.
After Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins’ season-ending ruptured Achilles on Sunday, the Lions are in position to win the NFC North. They may want to win the NFC, which is still a task. To combat secondary injuries, they could use a second pass rusher or cornerback beside Aidan Hutchinson.
Teams that should be subtracted by the deadline:
Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Giants, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders
Again, I don’t think many would argue that these nine teams are out of the playoff hunt and should be building their capital for 2024 and beyond. The Colts and Raiders have rotated backup quarterbacks because six of these clubs have two victories or fewer.
The Broncos stabilised their defence enough to beat the Chiefs on Sunday, but at 3-5 in a strong AFC, I don’t expect them to romp into the playoffs following their bye. Adam Schefter reported three weeks ago that they were “willing to listen to trade interest in almost any player on the defensive side.” Vance Joseph’s defence has ranked 13th in anticipated points added (EPA) per play over the past three weeks, including two games against the Chiefs, so Denver may not be as aggressive in trading defensive players after that 50-point loss to the Dolphins.
That puts 12 teams in jeopardy. I’ll list them in no particular sequence and explain what they should be thinking as the season turns midway. It makes sense to start with the team whose short- and long-term prospects were radically altered by a Sunday victory:
Big questions before the deadline:
Minnesota Vikings (4-4)
People didn’t expect Kirk Cousins’ final snap in a Vikings uniform to go the way it did Sunday. After two sacks in the fourth quarter, he left the field on one foot with trainers and was diagnosed with a torn right Achilles after more than 10 years without an NFL injury report. Monday’s MRI should confirm the damage, ending his season.
An already difficult scenario became more complicated when Cousins’ contract expired following the season. His lack of a long-term contract in the offseason suggests the Vikings were ready to move on after the season. Cousins, 35, responded by playing the best football of his career, including a huge win over the 49ers last week.
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